Perth Has Changed the Question. For years, the Australian property conversation revolved around one question: “How much higher will prices go?” In 2026, that question has changed.

Now buyers are asking:

• “When will prices rise again?”

Sellers are asking:

• “Should I sell before the market weakens further?”

Investors are asking:

• “Has Perth already had its run?”

And first-home buyers are asking something even more practical:

• “If I wait for prices to fall, will I actually get a better opportunity — or will the next growth cycle begin before I am ready?”

These are not theoretical questions. Australia’s housing market has shifted sharply in direction during 2026. 

• Interest rates have risen again
• Consumer confidence has softened
• Housing policy has changed
• National property values have started falling
• Some of the country’s strongest-performing markets have finally lost momentum. 

Perth is at the centre of that story. The city entered 2026 with extraordinary momentum.

Housing supply was tight, population growth was strong, rents were elevated, and buyers were competing for a relatively small pool of properties. But the market is no longer operating under those same conditions.

• By the week ending 20 September 2026, REIWA recorded 7,755 properties available for sale across Perth, up 7.6% in just four weeks and a remarkable 164.8% compared with the same week a year earlier.
• At the same time, 631 properties changed hands during the week, compared with 862 in the corresponding week a year earlier.

That does not automatically mean Perth is entering a housing crash. It means something more interesting is happening: the market is rebalancing. And that creates a much more important question than simply whether prices are rising or falling: When does the next phase of sustainable Perth price growth begin — and what has to happen before it does?

• For buyers, sellers and investors working across Perth, including the northern and eastern growth corridors and established suburbs, this distinction matters.
• For an agency such as Bargoti Real Estate, the answer cannot come from looking at one median price or one bank forecast.

It requires looking at the entire property cycle.

Whether you’re buying or selling, Expert Property Management in Perth can help you achieve the best results.

The Short Answer: Prices May Recover Before the Headlines Say They Have Recovered

The latest major-bank forecasts do not point to an immediate return to rapid national price growth. In fact, the opposite is currently expected. CommBank’s September 2026 housing outlook says the national downturn has become broader and faster than expected.

• CBA now expects Australian dwelling prices to fall around 9% from peak to trough, while Perth is among the cities expected to experience an approximately 8% peak-to-trough decline.
• CBA expects the national market to stabilise and begin recovering during 2027, with national prices forecast to rise by about 2% over 2027 — but that recovery depends partly on interest-rate cuts.
• Westpac’s September outlook is similarly cautious. It expects national dwelling prices to fall 6% during 2026, with a 7.3% peak-to-trough decline, but forecasts a recovery from 2027, with national prices rising around 3% in 2027 and a further 8% in 2028.
• Westpac estimates Perth’s peak-to-trough decline at around 4.8%, materially less severe than its forecast declines for Sydney and Melbourne.
• ANZ has also become substantially more cautious. In August, ANZ said it had lowered its housing forecasts and expected capital-city housing prices to decline 10.6% from their recent peak.

Australian property prices will rise on a particular date. No major bank can know that with certainty. The next Australian property recovery is increasingly being positioned as a 2027 story rather than a 2026 story. But Perth needs to be treated separately.

Perth has already undergone a much stronger growth phase than many eastern capitals.

• REIWA’s June-quarter data showed Perth’s median house price at $980,000, down 2.0% over the quarter but still 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
• Perth’s median for other dwellings was $700,000, down 2.8% over the quarter but up 21.4% over the year. The latest REIWA 12-month data, covering transactions through August 2026, puts the Perth metropolitan median at about $955,125 for houses and $690,000 for units.

That means Perth does not necessarily need another explosive boom to deliver good property outcomes. It needs stability, and stability may be the first stage of the next growth cycle. The 2026 Perth Property Market in One Table: 

Indicator	Latest Perth Position	What it tells us
Perth median house price	~$955,125	Prices remain historically high
Perth median unit price	~$690,000	Units remain substantially more affordable than houses
June-quarter median house price	$980,000	Quarterly decline, but strong annual growth
Annual house price growth to June 2026	+18.7%	Previous growth momentum was exceptionally strong
Properties for sale, week ending 20 Sept	7,755	Supply has increased dramatically
Four-week change in listings	+7.6%	Inventory is building
Year-on-year listing change	+164.8%	Buyer choice is dramatically higher
Weekly sales transactions	631	Sales activity remains below the same period last year
Properties available for rent	1,974	Rental supply remains tight
Weekly properties leased	611	Rental demand remains significant

This table tells a more nuanced story than the phrase “Perth property prices are falling”. Perth prices are coming under pressure. But Perth still has:

• relatively constrained housing supply over the longer term;
• strong population and household demand;
• a substantial rental shortage;
• a relatively diversified economy;
• infrastructure investment;
• comparatively affordable housing relative to Sydney;
• and a large pipeline of future housing demand.

The current correction is therefore better understood as a normalisation after exceptional growth, rather than simply an isolated collapse in demand.

What the Major Banks Are Actually Saying

The major banks have changed their forecasts repeatedly in 2026. That is important. A forecast published in March cannot be treated as though it still represents the bank’s September view. The market has changed too quickly. Major Bank Housing Forecasts — 2026 to 2028:

Bank	Latest Broad Outlook	2026	2027	Perth View
CommBank	Correction continues, recovery later	National peak-to-trough ~-9%	~+2%	~-8% peak-to-trough
Westpac	Significant 2026 correction, recovery from 2027	National -6%	+3%	~-4.8% peak-to-trough
ANZ	Much more cautious	Capital cities -10.6% from peak	Recovery remains dependent on conditions	National/capital-city focus
NAB	Substantial downgrade during 2026	Around -5% in latest published outlook	Not specified in the same forecast	Perth exposed to correction
CBA earlier forecast	More optimistic earlier in year	+3% initially	+3%	Later forecasts materially downgraded

The forecasts have shifted. Earlier in 2026, several major institutions expected continued growth. As interest rates rose, housing momentum weakened, and supply increased, those expectations were revised.

• CommBank is now forecasting an approximately 9% national peak-to-trough correction and an approximately 8% peak-to-trough decline for Perth.
• Westpac’s September forecast is somewhat less severe for Perth, estimating a 4.8% peak-to-trough decline.

The size and timing of the correction remain uncertain. No single switch turned Perth from a seller’s market into a more balanced market. Instead, several forces arrived at roughly the same time. Interest rates became restrictive again. When interest rates rise, the amount a buyer can comfortably borrow can fall even if their income has not changed. That reduces purchasing power. And when enough buyers experience that reduction at the same time, property demand changes.

• The RBA cash rate stood at 4.35% following the August 2026 decision. 
• The RBA said inflation remained too high and noted that financial conditions had tightened after three cash rate increases during the year.

This matters because property markets respond strongly to borrowing capacity. A household does not buy a property based on the headline price. It buys using: deposit + borrowing capacity + monthly repayment capacity.

Consider two hypothetical buyers looking at a $900,000 Perth property. Suppose they have a $180,000 deposit and need a $720,000 mortgage. A small change in the mortgage rate can materially change the monthly repayment. That affects:

• borrowing capacity;
• household cash flow;
• willingness to compete at auction;
• willingness to stretch above asking price;
• and the maximum price a buyer is prepared to offer.
• The result is often not an immediate collapse.

It starts with something more subtle:

• Buyers stop bidding as aggressively.
• Properties take longer to sell.
• Vendors receive fewer offers.
• Price expectations begin adjusting.

This is exactly why inventory matters.

Perth’s Biggest 2026 Signal May Not Be Price — It Is Stock

The most revealing Perth statistic of September 2026 may be the 7,755 properties for sale. REIWA reported 7,755 properties available at the end of the week ending 20 September. That was:

• 2.5% higher than the previous week;
• 7.6% higher than four weeks earlier;
• 164.8% higher than the same time a year earlier.

One week earlier, the figure was 7,565. At the end of August, it was 7,335. And REIWA noted that active listings had more than doubled since March. For much of the previous Perth cycle, buyers were competing against scarcity.

Now buyers are increasingly competing against time rather than against dozens of other buyers. That changes negotiations. A buyer now has more opportunities to:

• compare similar properties;
• inspect multiple suburbs;
• negotiate conditions;
• conduct due diligence;
• wait for a vendor to adjust expectations;
• compare rental yields;
• assess renovation costs;
• and walk away from an overpriced property.

This is a major shift from a market where buyers feared. If I don’t buy this house today, someone else will. That is a healthier foundation for long-term property decisions.

Also read: ATO Tax Formula Under Fire as Australian Property Investors Face Potential Overpayment

Perth Has Not Become One Market

This is one of the biggest mistakes people make when discussing property. Perth is falling.

• A $1.2 million established-family suburb is not the same market as a $700,000 outer-suburban house.
• A villa is not the same as a four-bedroom family home.
• A development site is not the same as an owner-occupier property.
• An investment apartment is not the same as a renovated character house.

Even within one suburb, properties can behave differently. That is why suburb-level analysis matters.

A. Suburb Example 1: Dianella

Dianella is a useful example of an established northern Perth market. 

• REIWA’s September 2026 profile puts the median house price around $1.22 million
• With annual sales price growth of approximately 24.1%. 

Based on the latest settled-sales data, the median house takes around 15 days to sell. This suburb entered the current phase from a position of significant price strength. That creates two opposing forces.

• Supportive factors: Established location; proximity to employment; established amenities; family demand; limited ability to create large volumes of new detached housing and strong historical buyer appeal.
• Risks: Higher entry price; greater sensitivity to borrowing costs; affordability ceiling; buyers becoming more selective and a larger gap between asking prices and achievable prices if vendors anchor to earlier sales.

A buyer considering Dianella in 2026 should therefore not simply ask: “Did Dianella rise 24%?” They should ask: “What did comparable properties actually sell for during the most recent 60–90 days?” That is the more useful question in a changing market.

B. Suburb Example 2: Canning Vale

Canning Vale presents another interesting case. 

• REIWA’s latest profile places its median house price at approximately $1.18 million
• With annual sales price growth of about 22.9%. 
• Median rent is around $850 per week. 

The suburb combines: family housing; schools; employment access; established infrastructure; transport connections and strong rental demand. The challenge is that its price point is now considerably higher than it was several years ago. That means affordability becomes increasingly important. A household deciding between Canning Vale and a more affordable outer-southern suburb may now calculate: purchase price + mortgage + commute + schooling + future resale value + rental alternative. The next stage of the market may therefore reward properties that deliver a strong combination of location and liveability, rather than simply properties in suburbs that previously experienced strong growth.

C. Suburb Example 3: Baldivis

Baldivis shows a different part of the Perth story. 

• REIWA’s latest data puts the median house price around $843,500
• With median rent around $680 per week. 

This is important because affordability remains a major driver of buyer migration within a city. When central and established suburbs become expensive, buyers often move outward. That creates what can be called the: A buyer may initially want: Inner Perth → established middle ring → southern corridor → outer growth corridor. The property market can therefore continue functioning even while expensive suburbs slow.

• The buyer has not disappeared.
• The buyer has moved.

D. Suburb Example 4: Gosnells

Gosnells offers another affordability reference point. REIWA’s latest profile puts the median house price at about $760,000, with annual sales price growth of about 21.4% and a median rent of about $655 per week. That combination illustrates why affordable suburbs can behave differently from premium suburbs. If borrowing power becomes constrained, buyers may shift towards:

• lower purchase prices;
• larger land parcels;
• established houses;
• suburbs with transport;
• and areas where rental demand remains strong.

The key point is not that one suburb will outperform another. The key point is that the buyer pool changes as affordability changes.

The Five Numbers Every Perth Buyer Should Watch. Forget trying to predict the exact bottom. Instead, track five indicators.

1. Listings

• If listings keep rising, buyers gain leverage. If listings stabilise and then decline, demand may be absorbing supply.

2. Days on market

• If properties take longer to sell, vendors generally have less pricing power. CommBank says Perth’s median time on market rose from about nine days at the start of 2026 to 22 days in the three months to August.

3. Vendor discounting

• If advertised prices remain high but final sale prices increasingly come in below expectations, the market is repricing.

4. Sales volumes

• Price data can lag. Transactions can show changing demand earlier. REIWA’s week ending 20 September recorded 631 transactions, compared with 862 in the same week a year earlier.

5. Mortgage rates

• This remains one of the most powerful variables. If mortgage rates remain high, affordability remains constrained. If rates eventually decline, borrowing capacity can improve.

The RBA May Be the Most Important Property Market Participant Nobody Can Buy a House From

The Reserve Bank does not set house prices. But it heavily influences the conditions under which Australians buy them.

• The current cash rate is 4.35%, and the RBA kept it unchanged in August. The Bank has warned that inflation remains elevated.
• CommBank expects another increase to 4.60%, with its current September view placing the next move around November, while noting that a September move remained possible.

It expects rate cuts to begin in 2027, but later than previously anticipated. The rate outlook has also become less straightforward. Westpac similarly expects cuts to begin in 2027.

• This creates a critical sequence: Higher rates → weaker borrowing capacity → weaker housing demand → price correction.
• followed eventually by: Lower rates → improved borrowing capacity → stronger demand → stabilisation → renewed price growth

The RBA will not cut rates simply because property prices are falling. It will respond primarily to inflation, employment, economic activity and financial conditions. That is why the property recovery cannot be separated from the broader economy.

The next recovery phase is more likely to emerge in 2027 than in 2026. CommBank expects national dwelling prices to stabilise and begin recovering during 2027, forecasting approximately 2% growth for the year. Westpac forecasts approximately 3% national growth in 2027. These forecasts are not guaranteed. They depend on interest rates falling as expected. If rates remain at restrictive levels for longer, the recovery could be delayed. CommBank explicitly estimates that if the cash rate stayed at 4.60% throughout 2027, national dwelling prices could be broadly flat rather than rising. That gives us a powerful framework.

• Stage 1 — Correction: Prices fall.
• Stage 2 — Stabilisation: Prices stop falling rapidly.
• Stage 3 — Confidence rebuild: Buyers become comfortable making decisions again.
• Stage 4 — Demand absorbs stock: Listings stop rising and begin tightening.
• Stage 5 — Price growth returns: Comparable sales begin moving higher.
• Stage 6 — Momentum: Competition increases, and prices accelerate.

 Perth appears to be moving through the transition between Stage 1 and Stage. The critical question is how long Stage 2 lasts. By the week ending 20 September, REIWA recorded only 1,974 properties available for rent, down from 2,083 four weeks earlier and 6.9% below the level a year earlier. 

Compare that with the sale market: 7,755 properties for sale.

• The contrast is striking.
• For sale stock has surged.
• Rental stock remains constrained.
• Suppose a Perth property is priced at $900,000
• Rents for: $700 per week.
• Annual rent: $700 × 52 = $36,400
• Gross rental yield: $36,400 ÷ $900,000 = 4.04%

Now imagine the property price falls to $850,000. At the same time, rent remains $700 per week. The same $36,400 annual rent produces: 4.28% gross yield.

The property has become cheaper without the rental income changing. That does not automatically make it a good investment. So do: interest rates; property management; maintenance; insurance; council rates; vacancy; land tax; depreciation; tax treatment and future capital expenditure. Falling prices can gradually make property more attractive to investors. At some point, the income proposition becomes attractive enough to bring demand back. ABS data provides an important warning. In July 2026:

• total dwelling approvals fell 3.6% to 17,687;
• private-sector house approvals fell 4.2% to 10,199;
• private-sector dwelling approvals excluding houses fell 0.4% to 7,119;
• residential building approval value fell 4.9% to $11.26 billion.

The construction pipeline is therefore not simply a matter of the government saying we need more houses. The economic question is: can developers and builders profitably deliver those houses at prices buyers can afford? That is a much harder problem.

The Investor Tax Changes Add Another Layer

Housing policy has also changed in 2026. CommBank’s analysis of the federal housing tax changes says the reforms restrict negative gearing for established housing and replace the previous CGT discount arrangement with indexation and a 30% minimum tax rate.

• CBA’s modelling estimated the combined reforms could leave house prices just under 3% lower than otherwise, with the impact potentially concentrated in segments with higher investor participation.
• The bank also noted that apartments, townhouses and lower-priced established dwellings may be more affected than owner-occupier-dominated detached housing.

This is important for Perth because not every property segment has the same investor exposure. A property dominated by owner-occupiers may behave differently from:

• an apartment investment;
• a high-yield townhouse;
• a lower-priced rental property;
• or a development-oriented property.

Therefore, don’t interpret the tax changes as: “All Perth properties will fall by X%.” Property markets do not work that neatly.

Buyers often imagine the bottom as a single day. For example: “I’ll buy when Perth falls 10%.” But property markets do not normally behave like a supermarket discount sale.

• Different suburbs reach their turning points at different times.
• Different property types reach their turning points at different times.
• Different price brackets respond at different speeds.

And the official data itself is backwards-looking. The actual low point may only become obvious months after it has passed. That means the market could look like this:

Period	Median Price	Listings	Buyer Competition
Boom	Rising rapidly	Very low	Extreme
Early correction	Still high	Rising	Falling
Deep correction	Falling	High	Moderate
Stabilisation	Flat	Stable	Returning
Recovery	Rising	Tightening	Increasing

The difficult part is that Stage 4 can look almost identical to Stage 3 until the data confirms it later.

Instead of asking: Has Perth hit the bottom? watch for these signals:

Signal 1: Listings Stop Rising

• If the number of properties for sale peaks and starts declining, it indicates supply is being absorbed.

Signal 2: Days on Market Stabilise

• If the median time to sell stops increasing, buyer demand may be finding equilibrium.

Signal 3: Sales Volumes Recover

• More transactions at stable prices can indicate returning confidence.

Signal 4: Vendors Stop Cutting Prices

• If sellers become less willing to negotiate, pricing power may be returning.

Signal 5: Auction Conditions Improve

• Higher clearance rates can indicate more competitive bidding.

Signal 6: Mortgage Rates Begin Falling

• This can restore borrowing capacity.

Signal 7: Investor Activity Returns

• If yields improve enough, investors can re-enter.

Signal 8: Rental Vacancy Remains Tight

• Persistent rental demand can support investor economics.

Signal 9: New Listings Slow

• This is particularly important.

A recovery does not necessarily begin because demand explodes. Sometimes it begins because sellers stop listing.

Read about: Australia’s Fastest-Growing Property Market Revealed After 193% Growth in 10 Years

The Perth Market May Recover From the Bottom Up

One of the most interesting characteristics of the next cycle could be that recovery does not happen evenly. It may begin in more affordable markets. Consider three hypothetical Perth segments:

Segment A — $1.5m+ established family homes

• The buyer pool is smaller. Mortgage sensitivity is higher.

Segment B — $800k–$1.1m established family homes

• Large owner-occupier market.

Segment C — $600k–$800k affordable housing

• Larger first-home-buyer and investor pool. If borrowing capacity remains constrained, Segment C may regain liquidity before Segment A. 

That does not mean it will necessarily outperform. It means it may have a broader buyer base. This is why suburb-level research is more useful than a single Perth-wide forecast. Perth’s median house price has moved close to the million-dollar mark. REIWA’s June-quarter median was $980,000, while the latest 12-month metropolitan data sits around $955,125.

The Perth buyer of 2026 is not one person. There are at least three important groups.

A. Buyer One: The Long-Term Owner-Occupier

Their decision is driven by:

• lifestyle;
• school catchments;
• commute;
• family needs;
• land;
• location;
• and long-term security.

For this buyer, a 5% short-term fall may matter less than whether the property meets their needs for the next 10 years.

B. Buyer Two: The Investor

The investor focuses on:

• rental yield;
• vacancy;
• financing;
• tax;
• capital growth;
• maintenance;
• and tenant demand.

The correction can potentially improve entry yields.

C. Buyer Three: The First-Home Buyer

This buyer is the most rate-sensitive. They are often balancing:

• deposit;
• mortgage serviceability;
• government support;
• rent;
• living expenses;
• and house prices.

For this group, affordability can improve through either lower prices or higher borrowing capacity. Ideally, both eventually improve.

Why Overpricing Can Become More Expensive in 2026

Suppose three similar houses are available.

Property	Asking Price	Market Response
House A	$850k	Correctly positioned
House B	$900k	Overpriced
House C	$875k	Average presentation

A buyer may inspect all three.

• House A receives an offer.
• House C receives enquiries.

House B receives: “We’ll think about it.” Two months later, House B may need to reduce the asking price. By then:

• buyers may have seen the property several times;
• the listing has become stale;
• the market may have softened further;
• new competing stock may have arrived;
• and the vendor has lost negotiating leverage.

This is why pricing strategy becomes particularly important during a correction.

For Bargoti Real Estate, the changing market creates an opportunity to provide something more valuable than a generic “market update”. The next phase requires micro-market intelligence. For example:

A. Dayton

The relevant questions are:

• What are comparable houses selling for?
• How quickly are they selling?
• What is the price difference between new and established homes?
• What are buyers choosing?
• How much stock is available?

B. Brabham

The questions become:

• How much new construction is competing with established homes?
• What incentives are builders offering?
• Is land supply increasing?
• What is the rental demand?
• Which property types are moving fastest?

C. Midland

The questions may be:

• How does affordability compare with surrounding suburbs?
• What is the investor yield?
• How strong is tenant demand?
• What type of stock is oversupplied?

D. Bayswater

The market may require:

• land-value analysis;
• redevelopment potential;
• transport proximity;
• established-home demand;
• and owner-occupier competition.

This is where a local agency can distinguish itself.

Instead of pretending one forecast will be correct, consider three broad scenarios.

Scenario A — Faster Stabilisation

Conditions:

• inflation falls;
• RBA stops tightening;
• mortgage rates stabilise;
• listings peak;
• buyer confidence improves.

Potential outcome: Perth stops falling sooner and begins a gradual recovery.

Scenario B — Base-Case Normalisation

Conditions:

• rates remain high for longer;
• listings stay elevated;
• prices soften;
• rental demand remains strong;
• eventual rate cuts begin during 2027.

Potential outcome: Perth experiences a period of price correction followed by gradual stabilisation and renewed growth. This broadly resembles the logic behind the current CommBank and Westpac recovery frameworks.

Scenario C — Prolonged Correction

Conditions:

• inflation remains sticky;
• interest rates remain high;
• unemployment rises;
• buyer confidence weakens further;
• listings continue increasing.

Potential outcome: The recovery is delayed beyond the timing some major banks currently expect. This is the key risk. Forecasts are not promises.

Perth Versus Sydney and Melbourne — Why the Story Is Different

One of the most useful ways to understand Perth is to compare its starting position with the eastern capitals. Sydney and Melbourne entered the correction at much higher price levels, with significant affordability pressure. Perth entered it after a period of exceptional growth but with a lower absolute price base. Westpac’s September outlook expects much larger peak-to-trough declines in Sydney and Melbourne than in Perth:

• Sydney: approximately -10.4%
• Melbourne: approximately -8.6%
• Perth: approximately -4.8%
• Brisbane: approximately -4.0%
• Adelaide: approximately -2.1%.

CBA’s September outlook is more severe overall and estimates Perth could experience around an 8% peak-to-trough decline. The disagreement is important. It shows that forecasting the exact size of Perth’s correction remains uncertain. Perth is no longer immune to the national housing slowdown.

There are at least four different meanings.

• Monthly prices stop falling: This may happen before the public feels confident.
• Quarterly prices become positive: This is a stronger signal.
• Annual growth turns positive: By then, the recovery is more obvious.
• Prices accelerate: This is the beginning of another boom.

These are not the same event. When will property prices rise again?” They often mean Meaning 4. But the more useful milestone for buyers and sellers is Meaning 1: When does the market stop deteriorating? That is the first signal to watch. The beginning of a property recovery rarely looks exciting. There may be:

• fewer price falls;
• stable medians;
• slightly faster sales;
• fewer vendor discounts;
• fewer distressed listings;
• improving buyer confidence;
• stabilising auction results.

The property market remains weak. But underneath the headlines, the cycle may already be changing. This is why market participants who focus only on headline price growth can miss the early stages of recovery.

If the current major-bank rate assumptions materialise, 2027 could become the year in which:

• interest rates begin easing;
• borrowing capacity improves;
• buyers become more confident;
• rental yields remain supportive;
• price falls slow;
• and demand gradually returns.

CommBank currently expects its rate cuts to begin in 2027 and expects national property prices to recover modestly. Westpac also forecasts a national housing recovery in 2027. The current forecasts do not imply an immediate return to the extraordinary price acceleration seen in Perth earlier in the cycle.

Perth’s Next Boom May Not Look Like the Last One

If Perth returns to growth, the next cycle won’t necessarily repeat the last one. The next cycle could be: slower; more selective; more suburb-specific; more affordability-driven; more rental-yield-driven; and more dependent on employment and infrastructure. The winners may not simply be the suburbs with the biggest historical growth.

What Buyers Should Do During the Correction?

The objective should not be to predict the exact bottom. Instead, buyers should improve their position.

• Step 1: Get finance-ready (Know your borrowing capacity)
• Step 2: Establish a maximum price (Do not let an auction determine your financial limit)
• Step 3: Track actual sales (Do not rely only on asking prices)
• Step 4: Compare suburbs (Look at at least three alternatives)
• Step 5: Analyse rental value (Even owner-occupiers should understand the property’s investment characteristics)
• Step 6: Inspect supply (Count competing listings)
• Step 7: Understand the land (Land value can matter significantly over a long holding period)
• Step 8: Negotiate (More stock creates opportunities for patient buyers)

What Investors Should Do Differently?

A property being 10% cheaper does not automatically make it good value. Instead ask:

• Has the rental income held up?
• What is the gross yield?
• What is the net yield?
• What will the mortgage cost?
• What are the maintenance requirements?
• Is vacancy likely to remain low?
• Is the property in a structurally desirable location?
• What does the local supply pipeline look like?
• What tax rules apply?
• What happens if rates remain high for another 12–24 months?

The best investment decision is not necessarily the property with the biggest discount. It is the property where the risk-adjusted numbers make sense.

A falling market can be uncomfortable for existing homeowners but potentially helpful for first-home buyers. Because first-home buyers have historically struggled against:

• investor competition;
• high prices;
• low stock;
• rapid capital growth;
• and fear of missing out.

A correction can remove some of that pressure. CBA has noted that its analysis of the housing tax changes suggests reduced investor demand could provide some relative support to first-home buyers. However, affordability gains may be partly offset by reduced turnover. A cheaper house doesn’t help if the buyer cannot secure an affordable mortgage. So first-home buyers need to watch price + interest rate rather than price alone.

The Most Important Perth Indicator May Be the Gap Between Buyers and Sellers

Imagine a property is listed at $950,000

• The seller believes: “My neighbour sold for $960,000 six months ago.”
• The buyer says: “The market has changed. Similar properties are now selling around $900,000.”

That $50,000 disagreement is the market.

• If neither side moves, no transaction occurs.
• If enough transactions fail to occur: sales volumes fall.

Eventually, a seller who needs to move accepts a lower price. That sale becomes a new comparable. Then other vendors adjust. And Perth is currently going through a large-scale price-discovery phase.

• In a rapidly rising market: expectations can become prices.
• In a correction: transactions reset expectations.

That is why recent comparable sales matter so much.

• A property may be advertised at $1 million. That does not mean it is worth $1 million.
• A suburb may have a median of $900,000. That does not mean every $900,000 property is comparable.
• A bank may forecast a 5% decline. That does not mean a particular property should fall 5%.

The market is always local.

A Practical Perth Property Dashboard for 2026–27. For anyone following Perth property, the following dashboard is more useful than headlines.

Metric	Why It Matters	Direction To Watch
Listings	Measures available supply	Falling after a peak is supportive
New listings	Shows fresh competition	Lower growth is supportive
Days on market	Measures selling speed	Falling is supportive
Vendor discount	Measures seller flexibility	Falling discounts are supportive
Sales volumes	Measures transaction demand	Rising is supportive
Auction clearance	Early demand indicator	Improving is supportive
Median price	Broad market direction	Stabilisation first
Mortgage rates	Determines borrowing power	Lower rates support demand
Rental listings	Measures rental supply	Low supply supports rents
Weekly rent	Measures rental demand	Stable/high rents support yields
Building approvals	Future supply pipeline	Weak approvals may constrain future supply
Population growth	Underlying housing demand	Strong growth supports demand

The Numbers to Watch in Perth’s Next Six Months

To spot when the market is turning, watch these numbers most closely.

• 7,755 listings: This is the September 2026 baseline.
• +164.8% annual listing growth: This is the biggest warning that market conditions have changed.
• 631 weekly transactions: Watch whether this rises consistently.
• 22-day Perth selling time: CBA’s latest measure shows how far the market has moved from its earlier nine-day environment.
• $955,125 metropolitan median house price: This provides the current broad price benchmark.
• $690,000 median unit price: This matters for affordability and investors.
• 1,974 rental listings: This shows the rental market remains much tighter than the sales market.

Imagine a family with:

• $200,000 available for deposit and costs;
• household income that supports an $850,000 purchase;

two children;

• preference for a four-bedroom home;
• and a desire to remain in Perth for at least 10 years.

In 2025, their problem might have been: “Can we buy before prices rise again?” In 2026, it may be: “Can we negotiate the right property at the right price?” That is a completely different market. They may now have:

• more properties to inspect;
• less competition;
• more negotiating power;
• more time;
• and better information.

But they still need to be careful about interest rates, repayments, employment, insurance, property condition, and future resale. The correction has changed their opportunity. It has not removed the need for discipline.

Over the next decade, Perth’s property market will ultimately be shaped by three things:

• People: How many people need homes?
• Jobs: Can they afford those homes?
• Housing: Can the city build enough of them?

The WA Government’s long-term Perth and Peel strategy anticipates significant population and employment growth, with planning for 800,000 additional homes. That does not guarantee price growth. But it establishes a long-term demand framework. If Perth continues attracting residents and jobs while housing construction struggles to keep pace, housing demand will eventually strengthen again. Buyers become so focused on obtaining a discount that they forget to assess quality. A $1 million property bought for $900,000 can still be a poor purchase if:

• it requires $200,000 of repairs;
• rental demand is weak;
• the suburb is oversupplied;
• insurance costs are high;
• the land is compromised;
• or resale demand is limited.

Meanwhile, an $850,000 property bought for $850,000 may become an excellent long-term asset if it has strong owner-occupier demand, scarce land, transport, schools, employment access, and limited competing stock. The price discount is not the investment thesis. The property is the investment thesis.

The changing Perth market makes local knowledge more important, not less. An online portal can tell a buyer: “There are 100 properties in this price range.” A local agency can potentially add the context:

• which ones are actually comparable;
• which ones have already sold;
• which vendors are negotiating;
• which properties are attracting genuine buyers;
• which suburbs are seeing increased demand;
• and which properties have been sitting on the market.

For Bargoti Real Estate, the opportunity is to make this information practical. The agency’s current offering spans buying, selling, renting and land, with its Perth base in Dayton. That positioning matters most in a market where the old “list it and wait” model is less effective.

When Will Australian Property Prices Rise Again?

The most defensible answer from the latest major-bank forecasts is that a broader national recovery is increasingly forecast for 2027. CommBank expects the national market to stabilise and begin recovering in 2027, with around 2% growth under its current baseline. Westpac expects around 3% growth nationally in 2027. But that does not mean: “Prices will definitely rise in January 2027.” The recovery depends heavily on interest rates and economic conditions. For Perth specifically, the more important sequence is likely to be:

• Late 2026: Correction and price discovery.
• Early 2027: Potential stabilisation, depending on rates, listings and buyer confidence.
• 2027: Potential return to modest growth if rate relief arrives and supply is absorbed.
• 2028: Potentially stronger growth if affordability and credit conditions improve and housing supply remains constrained.

This is a scenario framework, not a guarantee.

The national forecast can tell us the direction of the economic wind. But Perth has its own weather. The city has:

• strong long-term population plans;
• comparatively high rental demand;
• a large affordability advantage over Sydney;
• substantial infrastructure requirements;
• strong employment sectors;

and a housing market that has only recently moved out of a period of extreme undersupply.

• At the same time, it has:
• rapidly rising listings;
• higher mortgage costs;
• reduced buyer urgency;
• slower transactions;
• and a major shift in sentiment.

That combination creates a market where the next six to twelve months could be less about dramatic price movements and more about discovering the new equilibrium.

Perth is not one property. There are thousands of micro-markets.

• A $650,000 house in an affordable corridor.
• A $850,000 family home.
• A $1.2 million established property.
• A $1.8 million character home.
• A $550,000 apartment.
• A development block.
• A new-build package.

All of these can respond differently to the same interest-rate environment. That is why the future Perth market should increasingly be analysed through: suburb + property type + price bracket + buyer type + supply. This is the real next-generation property research model.

The New Perth Property Playbook

1. For Buyers

Don’t chase the bottom. Instead:

• understand your finance;
• research recent sales;
• compare competing listings;
• negotiate;
• inspect carefully;
• think long term.

2. For Sellers

Don’t anchor to the boom. Instead:

• price against recent evidence;
• present the property strongly;
• understand competing stock;
• identify your buyer;
• monitor enquiry quality;
• adapt quickly.

3. For Investors

Don’t buy just because prices fell. Instead:

• calculate yield;
• stress-test rates;
• assess vacancy;
• inspect supply;
• analyse land and location;
• understand tax implications.

4. For First-Home Buyers

Don’t focus only on price. Watch:

• borrowing capacity;
• interest rates;
• government support;
• repayments;
• deposit;
• and the total cost of ownership.

If Perth property watchers should remember one statistic, it is this: 7,755 properties for sale. Not because that number is inherently good or bad. But because it represents a profound change from the scarcity conditions that defined much of the previous cycle. REIWA’s data shows the market has moved from approximately 2,929 properties available for sale a year earlier to 7,755 in the latest weekly snapshot.

The Final Answer — Watch the Turning Point, Not the Headline

So, when will Australian property prices rise again? The major banks increasingly point towards 2027 for a broad national recovery, but their forecasts vary considerably and remain dependent on interest rates, inflation and economic conditions. CommBank currently expects a correction through the first half of 2027 followed by modest recovery, while Westpac expects national growth from 2027. For Perth, the picture is more nuanced. The city is already moving through a correction after an extraordinary growth period. The latest REIWA data shows:

median house prices remain substantially above a year earlier;

• listings have surged;
• sales activity is weaker;
• properties are taking longer to sell;
• rental supply remains tight;
• and buyer urgency has declined.

That means the next Perth recovery probably will not arrive with a single dramatic announcement. It will emerge through a sequence of small changes.

• Prices stop falling.
• Listings stop rising.
• Buyers become more confident.
• Sales volumes recover.
• Vendors regain some pricing power.
• Prices begin rising consistently.
• That is the real property-cycle turning point.

Perth’s next growth cycle is unlikely to begin with another buying frenzy; it is more likely to begin quietly, when higher listings stop rising, mortgage conditions loosen, rental fundamentals remain strong, and buyers regain confidence that today’s price represents value. That is why 2026 should not simply be remembered as the year Perth property prices fell. It may ultimately be remembered as the year the market changed from scarcity-driven growth to value-driven decision-making. And that change matters.

• For sellers, it means pricing and positioning matter more.
• For buyers, it means patience can have value.
• For investors, it means yield and fundamentals matter more than momentum.
• For first-home buyers, it means affordability must be measured through both prices and interest rates.

And for Perth’s real estate industry, it means the next competitive advantage will increasingly come from local intelligence, transparent advice and the ability to understand what is happening beneath the headline median. The next boom may come.

Perth Property Market — Key Takeaways for 2026–27:

1. Perth is correcting, but the correction follows an unusually strong growth period.

2. REIWA recorded 7,755 properties for sale in Perth in the week ending 20 September 2026 — 164.8% above the same week a year earlier.

3. Perth’s median house price remains close to $1 million, despite recent quarterly declines.

4. Major-bank forecasts increasingly expect a broader Australian recovery during 2027, although the timing is conditional on interest rates and inflation.

5. CBA currently estimates an approximately 8% Perth peak-to-trough decline, while Westpac estimates around 4.8%, illustrating the uncertainty around the depth of the correction.

6. Perth’s rental market remains considerably tighter than its sales market.

7. The next Perth recovery should be judged through listings, days on market, sales volumes, mortgage rates and rental conditions — not one headline median.

8. The most important transition to watch is from rising listings to stabilising listings.

9. Suburb-level research will become increasingly important because Perth’s next cycle is unlikely to move uniformly.

10. For buyers and sellers alike, the market has shifted from speed to value.

The major banks increasingly expect the broader recovery phase to emerge in 2027. But the first sign that it has arrived will not necessarily be a spectacular price increase. It will be much quieter: fewer listings, faster sales, stronger buyer confidence and a market in which buyers once again feel they need to act. Until then, the smartest way to read Perth is not to ask: “Is the market going up or down?” Ask: “Where is demand strengthening, where is supply building, and where is the gap between price expectations and actual transactions closing?” 

Get in Touch with Bargoti Real Estate

DISCLAIMER – The information and opinion provided is for guidance and general informational purposes only. The sole intention is to provide general understanding of the subject matter so the readers can assess whether they need more detailed information. The information provided on this website should not be regarded as a financial, business, legal or real estate advice and it is strongly recommended that the readers should seek their own independent financial, business, legal or real estate advice. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information and the material is correct and up to date at the date of publication. However, we do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information provided as the factors like changes in circumstances after the time of publication, may impact such accuracy or completeness. Bargoti real estate will not accept responsibility or liability for any reliance on the blog information, including but not limited to, the accuracy, currency or completeness of any information or links.