Australia’s construction trades apprentice stream has gotten softer since 2023–2024. National data indicate a rise in withdrawals, especially among construction professionals, and a decrease in the initiation of trade apprenticeships.   

Western Australia, and Perth in particular, is facing challenging housing goals under national and state programs, such as the National Housing Accord, but is still lagging in new home completions needed to meet demand and rental-supply constraints.  

Delivery is at material risk due to shorter build times, greater labour costs, demands on quality and compliance, and a skills mismatch in geography caused by the combination of fewer apprentices entering the building pipeline and rising housing targets.  

Increased builder margins, slower-than-needed productivity in some areas, and higher building costs are already signs of these effects in Western Australia.

The ramifications are both practical and strategic for Perth’s developers, real estate brokers, and property managers like Bargoti Real Estate.

Long-term: policy interventions (training funding, migration, and apprenticeship incentives) will shape capacity but may lag behind demand; medium-term: possible changes in the product mix (with a greater emphasis on modular, multi-unit, and renovation markets); and short-term: anticipate cost increases, longer construction timelines, and tighter deadlines.  

To reduce risk and capitalise on incentives, Bargoti Real Estate should be prepared for increased build costs, diversify its product offerings, openly review pricing and schedules with clients, and work proactively with regional training providers, builder networks, and government initiatives.

Why does this matter to Perth and Bargoti Real Estate?

1. Perth’s housing market is distinct in that it fluctuates in response to migration driven by the resources and mining industries. Still, it also has a robust underlying demand driven by population growth and affordability issues.  

2. All states are under pressure to increase annual completions due to recent state and national housing aspirations, such as the Housing Accord’s goal of delivering over a million new homes throughout Australia in five years.  

3. Despite an increase in home completions in 2024, Western Australia was unable to meet its ambitious goals. However, statistics from both WA and Australia as a whole indicate that apprentice commencements in construction trades are declining through 2023–2024 and into 2025.

4. The primary threat to achieving Perth’s housing goals is the combination of growing supply expectations and a declining pool of new tradespeople.

5. The risks for a real estate company like Bargoti are strategic (demand-supply dynamics changing the kind of stock purchasers want), operational (projects delayed, margins constricted), and reputational (missed handovers).  

This blog discusses the ways that the decrease in apprentice numbers impacts housing delivery and offers Bargoti doable, Perth-specific solutions.

What the data say: apprentices, construction and housing supply (key facts)

1. Apprenticeship commencements fell: NCVER reports a reduction in trade commencements at the national level, with construction trade commencements falling significantly in late 2023–2024. Following the “boom” in apprenticeships, there are indications of a prolonged cooling period.

2. Increased withdrawals: In certain regions, more apprentices were quitting the construction trades than starting, which raised questions about the efficient replenishment rate of the pipeline.

3. WA failed to meet goals despite completing more homes in 2024: Although WA produced more than 20,000 dwellings in 2024, the most since 2017, there is reportedly a gap compared to national housing-accrual targets and Perth’s rental supply demands.

4. Delivery pressure from policy: The National Housing Accord and state budgets have established aggressive targets and sources of finance to increase supply, putting increased pressure on the building sector to provide more homes more quickly.

How fewer apprentices translates to housing delivery risk — the mechanisms

Below, we break out the mechanisms that connect housing results and apprenticeship decreases, converting workforce transitions from abstract concepts into tangible impacts on projects and market supply.

• Reduced workforce throughput and slower delivery
• Rising direct labour costs
• Increased reliance on subcontracting and premiums
• Quality, supervision, and compliance risks
• Geographic and product mismatches

1. The majority of newcomers to building industries are apprentices. Because there are fewer commencements, the sector gets fewer new employees who, after training, carry out the duties that builders depend on. In the medium term, this slows completion rates and lengthens development timelines by reducing the number of labour hours available for housing projects.

2. Wages are driven up by scarcity. Builders must pay more or subcontract at premium rates to get workers when skilled trades and apprentices are in short supply. The build costs per house are directly impacted by higher labour costs, which may squeeze developer profits or increase buyer pricing. According to recent reports from Perth, the construction industry is facing cost pressures and rising trade wages.

3. Builders frequently subcontract specialised tasks. When the workforce is scarce, subcontractors can select higher-paying jobs, increase quotations, or extend lead times. This gives developers less control over their schedules and frequently results in staged or delayed handovers.

4. Apprenticeship programs are a regulated way to guarantee constant quality. Quicker upskilling or informal hiring paired with a lower apprenticeship intake may result in gaps in quality control and on-site supervision. Defects, rework, and compliance issues become more likely as a result, which slows occupancy and reduces profitability.

5. Perth’s growth is uneven; different skills are needed in inner-city, infill, and greenfield locations (e.g., Broadacre frame vs. multi-unit carpentry). It is more challenging to match skill types to demand locations when the apprentice pipeline is smaller, which may necessitate importing workers or changing project formats (e.g., from custom homes to modular buildings).

Perth-specific context: supply targets, recent delivery and the WA labour market

1. Although a significant number of new homes were built in Perth in 2024, the city’s rental supply still fell behind population growth.  

2. Government budgets and housing pipelines provide funding and land-release measures, but the bottleneck is increasingly perceived as a capacity-to-build issue rather than a financing or land issue.  

3. Despite impressive completions (20,000+ homes in 2024), WA fell short of the aspirational housing target by several thousand units, according to Curtin research and WA government materials.

4. Additionally, Perth’s rental stock saw a net shortfall in comparison to population growth. These discrepancies have an impact on project timetables and Bargoti’s market projections.

5. Furthermore, NCVER releases and Department of Training and Workforce Development reports provide the apprenticeship data that supports this image of a limited labour supply, which includes concerns about retention and a fall in construction trade commencements.

Direct impacts on housing targets (short, medium and long term)

Here, we convert the mechanics into tangible effects on the housing pipeline and housing targets.

1. Short-term (0–12 months)

• Long build times and project delays: On-site progress is slowed down, and projects take longer to complete when there is less labour available.
• Price index pressure: Inflationary pressures on workers and building materials; builders are passing on some of the cost increases to buyers.
• Selective delivery: High-risk projects stall as builders prioritise those with larger margins or quicker turnaround times.

2. Medium-term (1–3 years)

• Reduced net new housing completions: Even with strong demand, annual completions may fall short of the goal if the labour pipeline stays constrained. According to Curtin and other estimates, WA may still miss its goals in the absence of a consistent labour supply response.
• Product mix change: Developers and builders may favour modular construction, medium-density flats, or renovations that can be more labour-efficient and call for various labour mixes.
• Increased renovation activity: As investors and homeowners decide to extend or convert existing stock due to a shortage of new supply, the renovation market heats up.

3. Long-term (3+ years)

• Although training lags mean results materialise slowly, migration schemes, apprenticeship incentives, and training expansions may begin to replenish the labour pool.
• Funding may be increased by the National Housing Accord and state initiatives, but their success will depend on workforce policies.

Quantifying the possible shortfall — a simple scenario exercise (Perth lens)

These conservative, illustrative scenarios demonstrate the scope of the problem. (These scenario analyses, which use patterns in publicly available data, are not official projections.)

1. Baseline (status quo)

• Perth, Western Australia, is expected to finish about 20,000 residences by 2024.  
• To reach the Housing Accord target, the target for WA’s share under national objectives may be around 24,000 per year, which would result in a shortage of approximately 4,000 homes in 2024.

2. Scenario A: Apprenticeship decline continues (-10% commencements year-on-year)

• Adequate build capacity is decreased by around 5–8% due to labour availability (assuming apprentices contribute significantly to on-site hours over time).  
• Fewer completions result from that: 20,000 × (1 − 0.06) = 18,800 dwellings, increasing the deficit to about 5,200.

3. Scenario B: Apprenticeship decline accompanied by wage inflation (+10% labour costs)

• Builders postpone lower-profit projects, which results in a further 2–4% decrease in completions and an increase in the cost per unit.  
• To offset rising labour costs, completions are expected to decline to around 18,000, and prices per unit may increase.

4. Scenario C: Aggressive policy response + training scale-up

• Targeted training and apprenticeship incentives increase commencements by more than 24 months.  
• The pipeline recovers slowly; in two to three years, completions are expected to reach 22,000 to 24,000, but a gap remains in the near future.

These scenarios demonstrate how, in the absence of policy or migration, even slight declines in new entrants can result in thousands of homes not being supplied in a given year.

Secondary market impacts: rents, buyer sentiment and investor behaviour

Several market effects occur when build costs increase and housing supply lags:

1. Prices are still high:

• Perth’s rental shortage reveals a severe problem with rental supply, which drives up prices and makes them less affordable.
• This lowers vacancy rates and tenant mobility while raising investor interest in the rental stock that is currently available.

2. Buyer choice shift:

• As new construction costs rise, some buyers opt to purchase older homes, which in turn fuels competition and drives up resale values.

3. Investor caution on new developments:

• Marginal projects may be repriced or cancelled as a result of rising construction costs and extended timetables, which can make new projects less appealing to investors who require predictable yields and capped capital outlays.

4. Supply-demand mismatch:

• Developers who can control labour risks profit from a limited new-build pipeline, while latecomers suffer.
• This pipeline raises the value of well-delivered projects in desirable areas.

Policy responses and likely government actions

Governments can address the reduction in apprenticeships and construction capacity in several ways:

• Encourage apprenticeships through streamlined training pathways, wage subsidies, and employer incentives to boost enrolment and retention. Funding initiatives and pipeline commitments made by the Commonwealth and Western Australia may be increased or repurposed.
• Programs for skill development and retention should prioritise mentoring, apprenticeship completion rates, and on-the-job training to ensure that graduates become productive, skilled workers.
• While apprenticeships restore the domestic pipeline, skilled workers will temporarily migrate to meet skilled trade shortages.
• Support for off-site and modular construction, as well as Fast-Tracking and grants for modular housing, can lessen the need for on-site artisans for each dwelling.
• Expedite approvals in cases when supply bottlenecks are not labour-constrained; nonetheless, the efficacy of approval acceleration alone is limited by labour limitations.

To optimise delivery potential, governments will likely incorporate workforce measures into housing initiatives, as the National Housing Accord also links funding to outcomes.

Financial modelling adjustments — Practical checklist

Make the following modifications when re-modelling the viability of a project or development:

• Uplift scenarios for labour costs: +5%, +10%, and +15%.
• Timeline extensions: for programs that rely significantly on trade hours, add +8 to 20% to the build time sensitivity.
• Increases in holding costs: Interest, management, and holding costs rise with longer development periods.
• Timing of sales absorption: Model delayed revenues; later completion may reduce short-term cash flow.
• Contingency reserves: Depending on labour risk, increase contingency line items from 5% to 8–12%.

Broader socio-economic considerations

1. Apprenticeship declines are a sign of more significant structural changes, such as shifts in attitudes towards vocational occupations, changes in the population, and evolving educational preferences.  

2. To address this, employer-led paths, government support, and societal changes that promote trades as viable career options are necessary. A more robust apprenticeship ecosystem enhances both home delivery and WA’s overall economic resilience.

3. The building sector is concerned about the 3% decrease in the overall number of apprentices in training over the past 12 months, which is exacerbating the country’s skills crisis in construction.

4. The most significant declines were in roof tiling (down 13%) and bricklaying (17%), with plasterers and painters coming in second and third, respectively.

All trades experienced a decline in new apprenticeship commencements during the March quarter of this year.

5. The fact that 7,550 withdrawals occurred during the same time period as 7,482 apprentices completed their training was equally troubling. For the second quarter in a row, there were more dropouts than completions.

Conclusion

The decline in apprentice numbers is not an abstract HR problem — it’s a supply-side constraint that can materially affect Perth’s ability to meet housing targets. For Bargoti Real Estate, the implications are immediate (costs and timelines), tactical (partner selection and product mix), and strategic (investing in training and modular solutions).

By proactively modelling workforce risk, aligning with training providers, piloting labour-efficient construction methods, and transparently communicating with clients and investors, Bargoti can both mitigate downside risk and position itself to capture value in a tighter delivery environment. Timely action, partnership and scenario planning are the keys to navigating this labour-driven housing bottleneck.

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